In the first quarter of this year, the Chinese steel market heated up significantly.The main performance is the demand and supply flourishing, export recovery, price shock rise and so on several aspects.
Looking at the year steel market situation, to promote the first quarter of the steel market to warm up the basic factors, in the last three quarters continue to exist, some will strengthen.For example, policy-making departments countercyclical adjustment, macroeconomic bottoming and stabilization;Focus on the key role of stable growth of investment, steel consumption benefits more;Trade negotiations between China and the United States are progressing smoothly and market optimism is on the rise.The steel stock level is not high, the market participant confidence strengthens obviously and so on.
Due to the improvement of China's steel market environment, the market fundamentals continue to be healthy, so for the year steel market is still cautiously optimistic.Several major steel market indicators are forecast as follows:
The apparent consumption of crude steel continues to increase.In 2019, China's apparent consumption of crude steel approached 900 million tons, an increase of more than 5% over the previous year.
Steel exports are expected to fall into the rise.In 2019, China's steel exports will be more than 70 million tons, compared with the previous year or now slightly pick up the situation.
Steel demand was better than expected.In 2019, the policy-making department will make counter-cyclical adjustment, and will lead by vigorously increasing infrastructure investment in the short board field, so as to significantly improve the level of infrastructure investment in 2019, which will make China's steel demand better than expected.Annual demand for all steel (including exports), translated into crude steel will be close to 1 billion tons.
The statistical output of crude steel continued to grow.Driven by both internal and external demand growth, the national crude steel output continues to grow.Generally, it will not deviate from the three predicted value ranges :(1) the annual crude steel output of 960 million tons, up by 3% over the previous year;(2) annual crude steel output of 970 million tons, up by 5%, which is only one step away from the 1 billion tons mark;(3) the annual output of crude steel will jump to the 1 billion tons mark (1.002 billion tons), an increase of 8% over the previous year.All in all, there are many possibilities for China's crude steel production this year, but the overall trend will still be growth.
Iron ore imports remain high.In 2019, China's demand for high-grade iron ore keeps increasing. It is estimated that China's annual iron ore imports will reach about 1 billion tons, maintaining a relatively large volume.
Steel prices shock up.The steel demand is strong throughout the year, low level of inventory, supply and demand balance and cost increase four factors, will form the steel market within the year good, promote the steel price shock rise throughout the year.
Of course, in the overall steel market situation is expected to be optimistic at the same time, we must maintain some caution and risk awareness.This is mainly due to the fact that the higher price level hinders monetary policy, which may be less loose than expected.Strong growth in steel production has become a heavy pressure on prices;The outlook for global growth remains highly uncertain.By the above factors, the steel market will be late market wide shock, the process of rising from time to time.