Since the beginning of April, steel market out of the march range shock situation, steel prices all the way up, steel production profits back to relatively high, steel production is increasing.High profits and high output make the market mood more cautious, so is there pressure for steel price to fall in the later stage?
From the perspective of supply, since April, with the end of the heating season production limit, steel mills in tangshan, hebei province, handan city, Shanxi Province and other regions gradually relax the production limit, steel output has been increasing and set a new high.According to the statistics of the China iron and steel association, from April 12 to April 18, the output of five major types of steel reached 10.39 million tons.Among them, the output of rebar reached 3.55 million tons, and the output of hot rolled coil reached 3.28 million tons, both of which reached a record high.In late April, the bf in north China is still scheduled to resume production, and the steel output is expected to increase further.
The author believes that although the high output makes the market sentiment biased to worry, entering may, the non-heating season limit will be tightened again in tangshan city, hebei province, handan city, linfen city, Shanxi Province and other regions, and the possibility of peak steel output decline cannot be ruled out.
In terms of demand, April's apparent demand also hit a record high.According to the steel union statistics, April 12 ~ April 18, the market demand has fallen, the five varieties of steel apparent demand for 11.43 million tons.Among them, the apparent demand for rebar is 4.16 million tons, and the apparent demand for hot rolled coil is 3.42 million tons.Demand is expected to fall seasonally into may, but is likely to remain at a higher level than in previous years.
From the perspective of inventory, it is expected that the inventory of the five major varieties in May will be lower than the same period in 2018 and 2017.Among them, rebar inventory will be lower than the same period last year, higher than the same period in 2017, hot rolled coil inventory will be lower than the same period in 2018, 2017.Overall, inventory pressure is not great.
Comprehensive above analysis, current steel production profit is in relatively high, but should not look too high.With social financing and other economic data generally better, the macro expectations gradually improved, is expected to continue to destock in May, steel market will be a strong shock trend, the possibility of a big drop is small.