Daily review: to speed up the inventory of warm steel prices upward pressure

2019-04-10 08:48:10 Changyong Metal products Co., Ltd. Read


Core points:

Black today, the commodity price differentiation, in addition to the coal tar falls, other varieties have different rate rise, the rebar is still strong, closed up 1.9%, long ing, but no volume, capital surplus of 300 million yuan, iron ore, high and volatile, disk has a high back, closed up 0.31%, while coal tar is vulnerable to fall, coking coal fell nearly 2%, from coal mines in shanxi jiexiu area route starts, JiaoGang business inventories are still high, the price of coal tar was weaker, steel disk margin expansion, also has the use a high risk of falling, operational Suggestions bull strength check, shorting disk profits.Varieties spot, affected by the phase plate prices strong upward, steel prices continue to surge, building material gains, Shanghai rebar is tomb-sweeping day, more than one hundred yuan to rise merchants do mood is thicker, more other varieties have different amplitude increases, but a price is not much, the downstream demand is relatively rational, on-demand procurement, as north China steel mills and production continues to increase production and the south more rain, late to market inventory velocity may be warm, steel under the background of overall bullish fundamentals of cash, short-term continued upward pressure increase;Is expected to tomorrow plate surface steel high shock, the spot market biased stable operation.

The macro dynamic

1. [steel futures close higher, meal leads decline]

Thread, apple, wire, Shanghai copper, hot coil rose more than 1%, iron silicon, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai silver, zheng cotton, iron ore, Shanghai gold, Shanghai lead, manganese silicon and other gains.Vegetable meal fell more than 2 percent, coking coal, PTA, asphalt, rubber, Shanghai zinc, coke fell more than 1 percent, soybean meal, glass, zheng alcohol, fuel, corn, cotton yarn, sugar, zheng coal, PVC, eggs and other closed down.

2. [the index staged a roller-coaster trend, and gree electric appliances led a sharp rise in the white goods sector]

The Shanghai composite index closed at 3,239.66 points, down 0.16 percent, on turnover of 380.3 billion yuan.

The shenzhen component index closed at 10,436.62 points, up 0.82 percent, with a turnover of 459.9 billion yuan.

Chinext closed at 1,741.17 points, up 0.09%, with a turnover of 122.2 billion yuan.

3. [the comprehensive department of the state energy administration recently issued an urgent notice on strengthening the comprehensive safety management of hazardous chemicals in the power industry]

Documentation requirements, deep draw xiangshui "March 21" extremely large explosion accident lesson, to further strengthen electric power production safety management, the implementation of the comprehensive hazardous chemical materials safety management responsibility, plug up loopholes in safety management of dangerous chemicals, and promote the renovation and major hazards control, enhance the level of emergency response and dangerous chemicals safety of the electric power industry continued to carry out comprehensive management, effectively guard against resolving major security risk, resolutely curb major workplace accidents, ensure that the entire province electric power production safety situation is stable.

Futures market turmoil

Data source: steelworks data

Data source: steelworks data

Today, the trend of domestic black commodity futures differentiation, which finished products continue to go up in terms of strength, raw materials fell slightly.Thread 1905 contract rose slightly, the steel mills profit has been fixed to a higher position, in north China steel mills and production continues to increase production, late to market inventory velocity may be warm, steel fundamentals as a whole under the background of the ledo to release, short-term continued upward pressure, given the 05 basis has been restored, suggest early single strength check more surplus;Iron ore dropped 1905 high, superposition of tight supply end mills and production demand, iron ore fundamentals overall is good, but at present there has been a massive contraction, 05 basis at the same time, the price of 700 yuan/ton corresponding to the price range of $90 / ton in the short term while prices are still rising, but from the fundamental valuation, the current point to further pursue more risk and return of 05 contracts than the deteriorating, suggested that the early stage of the unilateral single meet more high underweight.

Spot fundamentals

3.1. Raw materials of steel

Data source: steelworks data

Data source: steelworks data

Steel billet: tangshan steel billet rose 40 yuan/ton on 9th, reported to 3550 yuan/ton, the direct delivery today is smooth, warehousing spot before noon 3640-3650 yuan/ton centralized transaction, afternoon steel fell, spot market trading is weak, the mainstream quotation about 3630 yuan/ton, part of the low price transaction.At present, the spot market band receiving short-term do inventory phenomenon is obvious.The downstream finished products increased by 10-20 yuan/ton to varying degrees, and the transaction slowed down after the increase. By 16:30, 20 steel mills in tangshan had sold 40,300 tons including orders, which was 48% less than the previous trading day.Steel billet pull up 80 yuan/ton for two consecutive days, the downstream finished products with rising fatigue, steel billet upward persistent test, short term billet price fluctuations more in accordance with the downstream prices, clinches a deal, in addition, the steel trend also determines the spot market clinches a deal mentality.Comprehensive performance of today's period, if the night disk upward momentum, pre - tomorrow billet price stability adjustment

Pig: pig iron market prices stop falling today temporarily, after several merchants to reflect the price enquiry, downstream iron works receive orders also obvious rise, producing inventory down significantly, shanxi, hebei, shandong leading enterprise inventory, respectively, 30000 tons, down 50% compared with a few days ago, suggests that demand has begun to recover, boosting market confidence has also been a certain degree.At present, the price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, the ore continues to rise, and the coke shows signs of stopping falling, so the price is supported and the industry is bullish in the short term.The market is expected to maintain stable operation tomorrow.

Scrap steel: scrap steel market continues to rise today, most steel mills rose scrap prices, or 30-50 yuan/ton.The Mysteel scrap index rose 0.13% to 2481.8.Futures market continued to rise significantly today, the spot market is active, market demand release, better trading.Scrap steel market affected by this, confidence greatly boost, the market began to grab goods, small pull up, traders shipping enthusiasm weakened, the arrival of steel mills gradually reduced, in the short term, steel mills will continue to reduce the arrival of steel mills is still likely to continue to rise, scrap steel market is expected to rise slightly tomorrow.

Domestic miners: prices in some of China's main mining areas rose on April 9.In north China, tangshan and qianxi rose by 30 yuan/ton, qianan by 21 yuan/ton, zunhua by 20 yuan/ton, kuancheng by 38 yuan/ton, hanxing by 42 yuan/ton, daixian and fanzhi by 10 yuan/ton.Tonghua in the northeast fell by 30 yuan per ton;The prices of zibo, tai 'an and zaozhuang in east China increased by 20 yuan/ton, laiwu by 18 yuan/ton and huoqiu by 28 yuan/ton.

Import ore: 9 days import ore port spot market trading activity in general, prices slightly weaker.Early traders offered prices were mostly steady from Friday.Shandong port PB powder mainstream quotation 670, tangshan port PB powder mainstream quotation 685, tianjin port PB powder mainstream quotation 685.Morning traders shipping willingness is acceptable, bargaining space in 5-10 yuan/ton, with the main iron contract shock weak, bargaining space becomes larger.Steel mills, today's purchase will not strong, mainly to wait and see, but the non-mainstream ore demand has increased significantly, more enquiries.Throughout the day market transaction prices slightly weaker.

3.2. The finished material

【 general steel variety 】

Data source: steelworks data

Data source: steelworks data

Construction steel: 9 domestic building materials prices continue to go up, the current mainstream city rebar average price of 4198 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton than yesterday, wire average price of 4288 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton than yesterday.Affected by the futures prices continue to go up, today morning part of the market price slightly upward, east China thread up 20-50 yuan/ton, north China up 10-30 yuan/ton, southwest up 30-50 yuan/ton, northeast up 60-80 yuan/ton, slightly reduced volume compared with yesterday.Afternoon spot price with futures back down slightly, but the mentality of the businessmen is still good, price will be strong, some speculative resources have cash profit signs.Comprehensive view, the market bullish atmosphere is thicker, domestic building materials prices are expected to be still slightly upward tomorrow.

Data source: steelworks data

Hot rolling: on September 9th, the price of hot rolled coil was fluctuating upward in major cities. As of press time, the national average price of 3.0 hot rolled coil was 4,097 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The national average price of 4.75 hot rolled coil was 4,036 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.Black as weak commodity futures market volatility, but period now moves appear differentiation, spot market prices continue to go up, offer strong today, currently remain east China price 3980 yuan/ton, 3970 yuan/ton south China, north China 3950 yuan/ton, spreads still approach, strong enough to support the north material batch down, along with the phase plate and the early stage of the prices up significantly, also stimulate the release of the demand accordingly, clinch a deal a few days ago is very good, and the market the company active of the previous period, there were signs of version in the market, today although the phase plate shock callback, but a better deal has propped up the spot price is still strong, not too much,Current inventory pressure is not large, do not want to take the initiative to fall, is expected to maintain stability tomorrow price shock.

Cold rolling: today, the national spot price of cold rolling coil is relatively strong.The national average price is 4,512 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices in Shanghai, lecong and tianjin are 4,380, 4,440 and 4,370 yuan/ton respectively.According to market feedback, market prices continue to run strong today, the overall deal is good.By region, the price in the south of east China rose by 10-20 yuan, in the central China by 20-50 yuan, and in the southwest by 20-50 yuan.From the feedback of traders in the market, today's price continued to increase slightly, black continued to be optimistic, the price of hot rolling raw materials continued to pull up, cold rolling up less than hot rolling, cold and hot price gap continued to narrow;Market bullish sentiment intensified, the terminal purchase is relatively positive, from some regions to understand that today's transaction less than yesterday, the merchants deliberately price to sell.It is expected that tomorrow parts of the region still continue to fill up, the national cold rolling average price continued to pull up.

Medium and thick plate: on September 9, the domestic medium and thick plate market price continued to pull up trend, the national average price of 20mm medium and thick plate is 4128 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.Among them, xi 'an saw a sharp rise of 120 yuan/ton and chengdu saw a rise of 80 yuan/ton. Except Harbin, which held steady, other regional markets all maintained a rising trend of 10-60 yuan/ton.By the black series futures continue to pull the impact of a strong bullish market atmosphere, the overall price continues to improve.On the contrary, the downstream purchase end wait-and-see mood increased, the overall transaction fell today.In terms of inventory, at present, the medium and thick plate is going to the warehouse quickly, the pressure of social warehouse is not big, the output of steel mills is normal, and the new resources and sales volume are relatively strong, which has little impact on traders' sales temporarily.Overall, it is expected that the short - term national mid - board prices will remain high shock operation.

Coated: today domestic coated plate volume price continues to shock strong trend.Among them, the national average price of galvanized coil of 1.0mm is 4789 yuan/ton, which is 27 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day.The national average price of color coated coil is 5791 yuan/ton, which is 7 yuan/ton higher than last trading day.Today's mainstream market rise significantly, the afternoon there are signs of continued to increase price, clinch a deal the whole situation is not optimistic, but given the tianbao wuhan will be the next year or two futures pricing information in May, is likely to continue rising, considering the resources city, the late high prices prices will continue to remain strong sales prices will is not strong;On the other hand, some steel mills are in short supply of raw materials. For example, hebei wanli's quotation of 1250mm today is still 50 yuan/ton more than 1000mm, which is similar to other regions.Generally speaking, galvanized price rise is the trend, but the downstream purchase enthusiasm is not strong is also the fact, the late or need to be cautious operation, as far as possible to clinch a deal shipping.

Professional varieties

Data source: steelworks data

Data source: steelworks data

Section steel: 9 east China section prices continued to rise, more than a small price exploration.Tangshan section steel prices as a whole in the morning stable, part of the low price high by, period steel high shock, billet tired up 40 yuan/ton, both profit, by billet cost rise, finished product material market as a whole up, up after the transaction is difficult, the overall transaction in general.Afternoon Angle steel clinch a deal volume, the overall clinch a deal is fair.East China market in the early part of the city quotation slightly up, to the intraday turnover began to show weakness.Although the current price and blank performance is strong, but the market performance is still a steady trend of strong, afternoon market operations tend to clinch a deal quotation high loose.Early south China profile businesses quoted a small increase of 20-30 yuan/ton, due to the market transaction is still general, the price rise is high, but still more cautious, mainly small increase.Comprehensive forecast, tomorrow domestic steel market price or consolidation trend.

Steel pipe: today most of the domestic city pipe prices steady, a few cities have pulled up.Welded pipe, galvanized pipe: today the price of raw material end strip steel rose significantly, the pipe factory generally with the transfer out of the factory price, but the market demand weakened after the manufacturers price increase, market price increase difficulty, most traders did not adjust the price.In general, whether the price can continue to rise in the later period depends on the release of demand, the national welded pipe price is still strong shock in the short term.In terms of seamless pipe, the price of tube billet rose today, but the pipe factory's pull up is weak, the market price is relatively stable, the current national demand for seamless pipe release is relatively stable, coupled with a little pressure on the supply side, the price of seamless pipe in the later period tends to weaken consolidation.

Strip steel: the overall price of the national strip steel market rose slightly today.Tangshan narrow strip opened up 20 yuan/ton, the mainstream manufacturers reported 3840 yuan/ton, the overall market turnover in general;Tangshan 355 strip opening up 40-50 yuan/ton, spot mainstream 3840-3860 yuan/ton ruifeng 3850-3870 yuan/ton, spot than futures 60 yuan/ton, many manufacturers stand price, low transaction can be.Wuxi market price quotation 3880-3900 yuan/ton, the market transaction is fair, as the hot coil price increases, the later steel demand or volume, the price temporary support.Lecong hot strip steel market rose 70 yuan/ton, as of press time narrow mainstream 3970-3990 yuan/ton, broadband 4010-4050 yuan/ton, today's market price chaos, high and low price spread is too large, high transaction is generally expected to be stable tomorrow.

Data source: steelworks data

Structural steel: today's special steel market prices generally pull up 20-30 yuan/ton.Nationwide, 45#4250 yuan/ton, 40Cr4478 yuan/ton, 20CrMnTi4641 yuan/ton, 20# billet 4173 yuan/ton.At present, the total inventory of superior and special steel bar samples in China is 825,800 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.16 million tons and a slight increase of 0.19%, 82,100 tons less than the same period last year and a year-on-year decrease of 9.05%.The volume of sample traders was 316,600 tons, down by 15,000 tons month on month, a decrease of 4.52%, and the volume was 104,600 tons higher than the same period last year, up by 49.35% year on year.It is expected that in the short term, the market price of high - quality steel will rise.

Industrial wire rod: the national average price of industrial wire rod continued to rise on September 9, among which the national average price of cold heading, drawing and hard wire rose by 23 yuan/ton, 47 yuan/ton and 45 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous trading day. By the close of the market, the national average price of cold heading, drawing and hard wire rose by 4,237-4,250 yuan/ton, 4,086 yuan/ton and 4,203 yuan/ton respectively.Steel mills, after yesterday's bidding, today qianan jiujiang again for general carbon material bidding, factory price than yesterday rose 20-30 yuan/ton.In terms of turnover, the volume of transactions declined from yesterday, with the drop of 13.82% in east China and 41.94% in south China.Combined with the current market situation, is expected to continue to adjust the price of industrial wire - based shock.