Downstream demand release later steel price whether to enter the rising channel

2019-03-18 10:48:32 Changyong Metal products Co., Ltd. Read

Recently, the domestic blockbuster economic data, in January and February this year real estate and infrastructure strong pull up, investment to speed up the recovery;Inventory fell for two consecutive weeks, the rate of decline accelerated;Liu he spoke with us trade representatives and finance ministers and made substantial progress on the text.Environmental protection policies have been tightened again, and central inspectors for ecological and environmental protection have been working in greater depth to help fight pollution.In a large number of news stimulus, steel prices recently appeared a small rise.

According to data released by the national bureau of statistics on March 14, in the first two months of 2019, the country's fixed asset investment grew by 6.1%, 0.2 percentage points faster than that of the whole year before.It can be seen from the data released by various projects that infrastructure investment and real estate investment have rebounded. In particular, the rebound of real estate investment has exceeded everyone's expectations.At the same time, MAO shengyong, spokesman for the national bureau of statistics, said at the press conference of the national bureau of statistics that investment is expected to continue to recover after the implementation of policies such as gradually improving social expectations and streamlining administration, reducing taxes and fees, and counter-cyclical adjustment.With the acceleration of investment growth, steel demand will continue to increase, steel prices have played a positive role.

In terms of environmental protection, li ganjie, minister of the ministry of ecology and environment, pointed out in a special training course on ecological and environmental protection inspectors that the central ecological and environmental protection inspectors should be promoted in depth to help fight against pollution.This year, the second round of routine supervision will be launched in an all-round way. We will strictly urge the rectification and implementation of the system, further promote special supervision, consolidate the system and capacity base, and strengthen the construction of the supervision team.In the face of problems, will bite, a stare to the end, do not let go until the problem is solved.In the environmental protection policy is increasingly strict, for steel production will also have a certain impact.

In addition, the continued improvement in sino-us trade negotiations has also boosted market confidence.

And in the current most concerned steel inventory, the current two consecutive weeks of decline.As of March 15, according to the monitoring data, the national 29 key cities steel social inventory of 15.707 million tons, compared with last week reduced by 600,000 tons, week-on-week down 3.67%, down 6.15% year on year;Under the steel social stock speed continues to accelerate, formed the certain support to the steel price.As of March 15, according to Lange steel cloud business platform, according to the monitoring data of the ten key cities for the domestic tertiary rebar (Φ 25 mm) the average price is 3999 yuan/ton, up from last week 31 yuan, up from February 1, 112 yuan, up 2.88%.

So, with the release of downstream demand, the late steel price into the rising channel?

The answer may not simply be yes or no.Because, although there are a lot of positive factors to support, but from the current steel production release, in January and February, crude steel daily output reached 2.535 million tons, crude steel production exceeded the expected growth, increased the market supply pressure.In addition, from the perspective of real estate sub-data, although the growth rate of housing construction area continues to rise, the completed area is still falling at an accelerated pace compared with the same period last year. The sales of commercial housing turn to negative growth, the land purchase area drops sharply compared with the same period last year, the growth rate of housing new construction area slows down, and the real estate investment and new construction may face greater downward pressure in the later period.

As for the steel price trend in the later period, wang guoqing, director of the iron and steel research center, said that although the current output of crude steel exceeded the expected growth, the market supply pressure;But along with the environment protection policy to be stricter, the inventory drops as well as the demand release, the supply and demand relations will improve unceasingly, the later period steel price will still slightly concussion upward.