Day review: steel price adjustment time will extend the limited space

2019-08-23 08:58:39 阅读

Core views:

Today's black commodity futures shock rebound, iron ore, coke intraday decline expanded, afternoon gradually strong, wide shock throughout the day, iron ore closed up more than 1%, coke slightly up, thread, hot coil shock closed up, thread up more than 1%, disk reduce warehouse upward;Affected by good industrial data, disk prices rebound after falling, this week thread production continues to decline, inventory decline is not large, the short-term is still adjustment trend;Operation is recommended to sell low, carefully short.Varieties of spot, affected by the early steel price vulnerable shock, market quotation stable in a drop, which the thread average price down 3 yuan/ton, hot rolling average price flat, in addition to cold rolling up, other varieties have different ranges of decline, market change is not big, many merchants to wait and see;Recent steel price rebound on the industry adjustment is difficult to say good, inventory growth is large, the market adjustment time may be extended, the short-term rise and fall space is limited;Steel prices are expected to wide range tomorrow, spot prices stable operation.

The macro dynamic

1. [most of the red oil and oil stocks rose the most in domestic futures market]

Domestic futures market close most float red, most of the agricultural products rose, oil and fat or oilseed rose first, palm oil, two meal, vegetable oil, sugar rose more than 1%, japonica fell more than 1%;Strong black, ferrosilicon, iron ore, thermal coal rose more than 1 percent;Chemical downturn, polypropylene, PTA, plastic, PVC fell more than 1%.

2. [the two cities continued to lead the market with strong sideways shock throughout the day]

Today, Shanghai and shenzhen stock index collective high open, two cities throughout the day in the flat line near the sustained shock trend, there is no upward offensive intention.Gem refers to the trend of the main board is much the same, but slightly stronger than the main board.Hot plate is messy, only the shenzhen plate out of a strong trend, other plates mainly by a wave.The Shanghai composite index rose 0.11 percent to 2,883 points.The shenzhen composite index gained 0.3 per cent to 9,350.Chinext rose 0.23 per cent to 1,613 points.From the disk, shenzhen, pharmaceutical e-commerce, liquor, military and other sectors up the top;Hydrofluoric acid, semiconductors, industrial park development and other sectors fell to the top.Net inflows from the shanghai-listed stock connect reached 644 million yuan, while those from the shenzhen-listed stock connect reached 1.269 billion yuan.

3. [DCC will accelerate the listing of scrap steel, gas coal futures and iron ore, coking coal and coke options]

China coal industry conference 2019 was held in shenzhen.In his speech, wang fenghai, general manager of DCC, said that DCC will continue to do a solid job in front-line supervision, resolutely maintain the smooth operation of the market, accelerate the implementation of the rolling delivery system of coking coal and coke, study and adjust the quality standards of coke contracts, continuously improve the quality of market operation, and constantly consolidate the achievements of diversified and open development.At the same time, we will accelerate the listing of scrap steel, gas and coal futures, iron ore, coking coal and coke options, further enrich the system of safe haven products and tools, and constantly enrich the connotation of the diversified and open market.

Futures market

Data source: steel link data

Data source: steel link data

Today, the domestic black business recession recovery, iron ore closed up 1.1%, screw up 1.3%, coke hot coil all closed up, the black chain index volume closed up, capital inflows.Specifically: construction steel spot market quotation is mixed, in order to prevent air pollution, steel mill further increase production efforts to reduce output, this week rebar weekly output, steel mill inventory and social inventory decline.Technically, the RB1910 contract cut position upward, the 1-hour MACD index shows that DIFF runs upward through DEA, and the green column turns to red column.The 1-hour BOLL index showed the leveling of the central axis and the lower rail.Operation recommendations, back more short, below 3650 stop loss.

Spot fundamentals

3.1. Steel raw materials

Data source: steel link data

Data source: steel link data

Tangshan billet factory billet: 22, 10 yuan/ton, 3410 yuan/ton, straight hair today, warehouse stock trading mainly concentrated in the forenoon, part 3480-3490 yuan/ton price clinch a deal, although afternoon spot price has rise, the market is given priority to with watching, part of the futures orders clinch a deal, affected by the environmental protection limit production is expected in September, issue order now spreads by 50 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton.Downstream finished products are driven by the early plate billet price rise and the end of the main screw contract narrow drive, the price slightly higher, the deal significantly improved, tangshan 20 billet profile sample steel mill turnover of 59100 tons, compared with the previous trading day up 36100 tons.This week, the research billet supply continues to increase slightly, while the demand affected by the fengrun district production, significantly down.There are two reasons for the increase of billet storage inventory.2. The futures orders of the early period are due successively, and the orders of the trade link are much more.Downstream rolling mills, although the price difference between billet and material continues to expand, but the adjustment of billet into material prices remain support sentiment, high prices of resources are difficult.Under the current fundamental situation, the billet price in the short term will still be dominated by narrow range shock, but based on today's market trading, do not rule out tomorrow billet price continues to warm up slightly.

Pig iron: today pig iron market quotation temporarily stable operation, general transaction situation.Shanxi yicheng: cast iron 3,300 yuan/ton, ductile iron 3,200 yuan/ton, iron smelting 3,000 yuan/ton;Linyi, shandong: RMB 3,200 / ton for cast iron, RMB 3,250 / ton for ductile iron, RMB 2,950 / ton for ironmaking, including tax in cash.At present, ductile iron mills in shanxi that were converted to iron smelting in the early stage have resumed ductile iron production, and the market supply has increased, while the demand has not improved significantly. The iron factory's shipment is not so good, and the market continues to wait and see.Ironmaking deal in general, most of the iron factory feedback shipment than earlier drop significantly, inventory accumulation, steel mills more price procurement, iron demand weakened, business mentality is weak.It is expected that tomorrow pig iron market price consolidation operation.

Scrap steel: scrap steel market is running smoothly today, shagang led the temperature rise failed to continue to today, the overall market is in consolidation and maintenance of stability, merchants mainly wait and see.The Mysteel scrap price index rose 0.07% to 2582.3.Affected by the continuous reduction of material inventory, the current period of the screw first fell and then pulled up, the overall shock operation, but the material market transaction is still light, scrap steel resources are still tight, the price temporarily supported.After the furnace capacity and capacity utilization double drop, become useful social inventory for two weeks to reduce inventory and steel mills, distributed in various areas of news, the market seems to have stabilised the rebound trend, but now the moment, scrap steel supply and demand fundamentals conversion is still not optimistic, good timber end demand has not appeared at the same time, so now the market should not be overly optimistic, afternoon should give priority to wait.In the short term, scrap on resistance, support, dilemma.Scrap steel market is expected to run smoothly tomorrow.

Domestic mine: the price of domestic mine was stable on August 22.The price of anshan, haicheng and benxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton, the price of liaoyang decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the price of fushun decreased by 60 yuan/ton.Specifically, it can be seen that: north China -- tangshan 66% dry base tax inclusive cash ex-factory 855 yuan/ton, moving west 66% dry base tax inclusive cash ex-factory 876 yuan/ton, moving an 66% dry base tax inclusive cash ex-factory 870 yuan/ton;Zunhua 66% dry base cash including tax ex-factory 850 yuan/ton

Imported ore: iron ore market is still active after the close of the day, the deal price was weak in the morning and recovered in the afternoon.In the morning, the traders' quotation was weaker and more stable than yesterday. After the closing of the market, PB pink mainstream quotation was 700. Due to more presold resources, traders' shipping mentality was stronger.Steel mill, replenishment demand exists, inquiries are acceptable, the current price continues to reduce, to increase the purchase, few afternoon transactions.

3.2. The finished material

[varieties of pu steel]

Data source: steel link data

Data source: steel link data

Construction steel: the domestic construction steel price fluctuated in a narrow range today. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3806 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price index of Mysteel rebar was 3760.34, down 4.72 from the previous trading day.Cent area looks, east China area rises and falls mutually show, central China part rises, south China, northeast, southwest, northwest is loosened slightly, other area holds steady to run.Specific to today's market, the early market generally maintain the previous day's closing price, intraday transaction is relatively general, in the afternoon, in the period of spiral drive up, trading improved, the price of some areas appeared a small rebound, but pushed up to the high, transaction turned light.From the perspective of fundamentals, the output continues to decline, and the decline of in-factory inventory and social inventory has narrowed, especially the decline of in-factory inventory has narrowed significantly, indicating that although the output has declined for two consecutive weeks, the low volume still makes the inventory destocking seem difficult.It is worth noting that most of the decline of social inventory this week is mainly from Beijing, and the low local order sentiment leads to a significant decline in inventory. At the same time, some steel mill resources are gathering in port successively, and in-transit resources may be increasing. The fundamental pressure has not been fundamentally solved, which has a potential impact on the medium-term market.Expect short-term domestic construction steel price shock operation, easy to fall difficult to rise.

Data source: steel link data

Hot rolling: the price of hot rolling coil in major cities in China was temporarily stable on 22nd, the national average price of 3.0 hot rolling coil was 3,828 yuan/ton, flat compared with the previous trading day, and the national average price of 4.75 hot rolling coil was 3,770 yuan/ton, flat compared with the previous trading day.Today's black commodity futures market range shock, spot prices are mixed, regional trend appears divergence, including east China, south China, northeast China up slightly, northwest, southwest region down slightly, central and southern region up and down.Early business quotation rose slightly, but rose after the high transaction weakness, price appeared dark fall, afternoon as the disk pulled up, spot transaction slightly better, low transaction is ok.Regional price difference, east China 3710-3720 yuan/ton, south China 3790-3800 yuan/ton, north China 3720-3730 yuan/ton, north-south price difference continues to repair today, at present, the downstream demand is a little repair, but the overall trading atmosphere is still poor, merchants on the outlook there are contradictions and short coexist, also leads to the recent hot rolling price fluctuations frequent but limited range.In terms of this week's data, the supply continued to increase, increasing by 63,800 tons and decreasing by 4.36 tons.Overall, the contradiction is still not resolved, the price is still at the top, the bottom, ups and downs are difficult to have a big breakthrough.

Cold rolling: today, the spot price of cold rolling plate rolls is mixed, the national average price is 4,328 yuan/ton, the previous trading day increased by 2 yuan/ton, among which Shanghai, lecong and tianjin are 4240 yuan/ton, 4270 yuan/ton and 4190 yuan/ton respectively.According to market feedback, today's cold rolling market as a whole smooth operation, shipping in general.From the regional perspective, fuzhou, lanzhou and urumqi rose by 20-30 yuan per ton, while changsha, tianjin and xi 'an reduced by 10 yuan per ton.Market mentality, today's futures hot coil narrow shock, raw material rolling shock operation, the overall transaction in general.It is understood that today's market demand has not significantly changed, traders than before the mood has improved, but the operation is still cautious.At present, the cold and hot price spread in some areas is further expanding, increasing the pressure of cost support.Domestic cold rolling is expected to be mainly stable tomorrow.

Medium and thick plate: 22 domestic medium and thick plate market price slightly weakened, the national average price of 20mm board 3865 yuan/ton, compared with yesterday's average price fell 4 yuan/ton.Nanjing, Beijing, tianjin, shenyang, Harbin, chongqing, xi 'an and other places fell 10-30 yuan per ton, nanchang market rose 10 yuan per ton, and the rest of the region maintained steady operation.In terms of the market, the early trading of black futures shows a strong performance, which has been boosted by the market mentality, low willingness to reduce prices, and the overall market price remains stable.However, the market transaction atmosphere is poor, and the downstream bearish attitude towards the outlook remains. The market shipment is still relatively general, spot price has fallen in the afternoon, and there is a lack of upward momentum.Overall, the market is expected in the short term in thick plate prices are continuing weakness.

Coating and plating: today domestic coating and plating prices weak decline, mainly in the northeast region.Specific price, galvanized sheet roll 1.0mm national average price 4687 yuan/ton, average daily price decreased 1 yuan/ton, color coated sheet roll 0.476mm national average price 5772 yuan/ton, average daily price decreased 1 yuan/ton.Transaction situation, the majority of traders in the north of today's transaction deviation feedback, the downstream terminal procurement is still wait-and-see.In terms of resources, some regions are short of specifications. For example, the northern region is short of 1000mm resources, and some private steel mills in the central and southern region take the initiative to stop production and reduce production due to insufficient supply of raw materials.Near the end of the steel settlement, traders support price willingness is not strong, coupled with the general performance of the market, generally speaking, short-term coating price or weak operation.

Professional varieties

Data source: steel link data

Data source: steel link data

Section steel: 22 domestic section steel market price consolidation weakness.Tangshan steel price steady operation, early low resources trading can, afternoon market trading atmosphere is active, the overall deal is smooth, the current rolling mill is still in the stop production stage.East China profile price steady operation, due to the recent spot transaction performance in general, business mentality slant empty.With the recovery, spot resources quotation gradually steady, but the actual transaction is still loose.Afternoon spot trading slightly better, low - cost resources reduced.Early south China profile prices are basically stable, in the afternoon, with the rise of steel, market transactions improve, low shipment smooth, afternoon low resources gradually reduced.Comprehensive forecast, tomorrow domestic steel market prices or consolidation wait - and - see - based.

Steel pipe: 22 domestic welded pipe, galvanized pipe prices down slightly, seamless pipe prices remain stable.Welded pipe, galvanized pipe: today's raw materials slightly back up, some pipe factory with the rise, the manufacturer's order situation is general.But today, the domestic welded pipe, galvanized pipe market price most of the stability, some of the market price exists a small fall.At present, the market in the off-season market, demand did not improve, most businesses are still holding a wait-and-see mentality.It is expected that the domestic welded pipe, galvanized pipe price will still run in a narrow range of shock.Seamless: today shandong tube billet price stability, jiangsu tube billet slightly down, the tube factory has dropped.Market: today's domestic seamless tube market price remains stable, the overall transaction flat.It is understood that businesses around the seamless tube market confidence is obviously insufficient, mainly because of the recent supply growth, but no improvement in demand, the long-term will break the current relative shortage of resources, so most of the traders on the market wait-and-see mentality, operation is conservative.It is expected that the domestic seamless tube market will be stable in the weak operation.

Steel strip: 22 national main stable operation of steel strip, by yesterday's futures to boost the impact, part of the transaction warmer, but manufacturers are still cautious, the price of a small shock.Tangshan small narrow band intraday up 10-20, mainstream manufacturers quoted 3720-3730 yuan/ton, after the rise of the overall market turnover is active, many clear;Tangshan 355 strip steel all day after the futures fall back, the mainstream is more stable than yesterday, spot 3740 yuan/ton, ruifeng 3760 yuan/ton, the market low turnover smooth, manufacturers more support price.East China strip steel is relatively strong today, the mainstream 3860-3870 yuan/ton, transaction in general.South China strip steel is running stably. As of press release, the main stream of narrow band is 3,890-3,920 yuan/ton, while the middle broadband is 3,910-3,950 yuan/ton. The transaction is normal, the inventory is low, and the business mentality is ok.Sentiment is divided, but confidence has improved since early August.Cold and hot spread repair trend, cold - rolled galvanized kind of start up.The contradiction between supply and demand in the strip steel market tends to ease, but at the end of the month settlement, under the pressure of funds, manufacturers more cautious wait and see, it is expected that the short-term market is still volatile adjustment operation.

Data source: steel link data

Structural steel: today you special steel market price stability is the main, nationwide, 45#3918 yuan/ton, 40Cr4149 yuan/ton, 20CrMnTi4217 yuan/ton, 20# tube blank 3806 yuan/ton.The total inventory of rods in China's special steel mills is 912,600 tons, which is 16,200 tons lower than last week and 1.74% lower than the previous month. It is 125,800 tons higher than the same period last year and 15.99% higher than the same period last year. It is 176,400 tons lower than the 2018 average, 16.2% lower than the 2018 average, and 0.04 million tons higher than the previous year average.It is expected that short - term special steel market price weakness to stabilize.

Industrial wire: 22 national industrial wire prices weak consolidation, including cold upsetting, drawing and hard wire national average price is stable, down 2 yuan/ton and down 10 yuan/ton, by the end of the closing, national cold upsetting steel average price 4203-4243 yuan/ton, drawing average price 3937 yuan/ton, hard wire average price 4144 yuan/ton.Today's industrial wire and fall in the market price stability, a good supply of the current inventory, traders offer also there is a big gap, the overall deal due to the scattered resources and poor performance, the current sample statistics of industrial wire varieties of inventory for a total of 442100 tons with statistics caliber to reduce 00700 tons from last week, fell 0.15%, inventories held steady running, another market rumors YongNian fastening industry region will begin on September 3 production upgrade for 50 days, demand will be cool again, expected short-term industrial wire prices will remain weak.